-By LeN Defence and Foreign Affairs Correspondent
(Lanka-e-News -27.April.2025, 11.35 PM) In a chilling escalation of South Asia’s already volatile security situation, Pakistan’s Defence Minister this week issued a stark warning: any military action by India would be met with the deployment of Pakistan’s full nuclear arsenal, comprising an estimated 130 warheads.
Speaking at an emergency press conference in Islamabad, the Minister declared, “Pakistan will not hesitate to use every weapon in its arsenal to defend its sovereignty. Any Indian provocation will be answered with the full force of our nuclear capability.”
The statement, delivered with theatrical gravity, has sent shockwaves across diplomatic and defence communities worldwide, raising the spectre of a potential nuclear conflict on the subcontinent — a region already described by military strategists as one of the most dangerous flashpoints on Earth.
While Indian military planners have for weeks floated the possibility of “surgical strikes”, naval blockades, and air operations against Pakistan in retaliation for recent terrorist incidents — notably the Palakram attack — little actual kinetic action has thus far materialised.
Instead, Islamabad has managed to rally domestic political factions, military leadership, and public opinion into a rare and fervent unity against what is perceived as Indian aggression.
The immediate cause for this spiralling tension is the Palalgam attack, a killing near a military base in northern India that claimed the lives of over 40 soldiers earlier this month. Initially blamed on Pakistani-based militant groups by New Delhi, the Indian government’s narrative is now being scrutinised both at home and abroad.
Notably, several foreign analysts and intelligence sources have privately expressed doubt about the official Indian version of events. Comparisons have been drawn to previous controversial incidents — including allegations that Indian operatives staged attacks to influence electoral outcomes, such as the 2019 Easter Sunday bombings in Sri Lanka, which critics say helped then-Prime Minister Narendra Modi consolidate political power.
In Islamabad, the Palakram attack is being framed as a provocation designed to justify Indian military action and whip up nationalist sentiment ahead of critical elections.
In the words of one senior Pakistani official, “We are dealing not only with an external threat but also with an Indian political leadership willing to risk regional annihilation for domestic gain.”
Pakistan’s military has not waited idly for Indian actions. Over the past fortnight, it has initiated a significant mobilisation of forces along the eastern border. Newly acquired HQ-9 air defence systems from China have been deployed to strategic points, dramatically enhancing Pakistan’s anti-aircraft and anti-missile capabilities.
In addition, Turkey has openly pledged diplomatic and logistical support to Pakistan, with whispers in defence circles of Turkish drones and electronic warfare systems being quietly transferred into Pakistani hands.
Financially, Pakistan has also bolstered its war chest. Defence sources confirm that over $4 billion in emergency funds have been secured from Middle Eastern private individuals and institutions sympathetic to Pakistan’s position. These funds are reportedly earmarked for immediate procurement of arms, fuel, and critical military supplies.
Notably, Pakistan’s fledgling submarine fleet has entered operational deployment in the Arabian Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean. While modest in size compared to India's naval forces, these submarines are equipped with torpedoes and potentially anti-cable devices — posing a credible threat to India’s undersea internet infrastructure, which could cripple civilian and military communications in the event of a prolonged conflict.
“Pakistan is preparing for a six-month war,” a Western diplomat stationed in Islamabad said. “And they are deadly serious about it.”
Despite the bellicose rhetoric, Indian military action has thus far been conspicuous by its absence.
The Indian Air Force, once vaunted for its capabilities, has reportedly struggled to achieve full operational readiness. Multiple exercises scheduled for early April were delayed or scaled back, according to sources inside the Indian Ministry of Defence.
Furthermore, the Indian Navy’s long-threatened “complete blockade” of Karachi Port has yet to materialise beyond a few token patrols.
Publicly, the Modi government has maintained a posture of resolve, insisting that "all options remain on the table." However, behind the scenes, officials are said to be grappling with a difficult reality: a full-scale war with Pakistan, especially one involving nuclear risk, could be catastrophic both militarily and politically.
“India has no experience with a sustained six-month military campaign,” said Menon, a strategic analyst at the Centre for Indian Defence Studies. “Every major war India has fought — 1947, 1965, 1971, 1999 — has been relatively short. This would be a war of attrition, and India may not be prepared for that reality.”
The consequences of any escalation would not be limited to India and Pakistan.
Neighbouring countries — Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, and the Maldives — would suffer devastating collateral damage, both economic and humanitarian.
Airspace closures, trade disruptions, and the displacement of refugees could turn South Asia into a humanitarian nightmare zone within weeks.
Sri Lanka, still reeling from economic instability and political unrest, would likely see vital shipping lanes closed and foreign investment vanish overnight. Bangladesh’s garment-driven economy would suffer severely under trade embargoes and supply chain disruptions.
In Nepal and the Maldives, heavily dependent on tourism, economic collapse could ensue within months.
A senior Sri Lankan diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Lanka E news: "There will be no winners in this war. The entire region will be dragged into darkness."
Iran, sensing the gravity of the situation, has offered to mediate between India and Pakistan, proposing high-level talks in Tehran.
However, New Delhi immediately dismissed the proposal, with a spokesperson stating, “India does not require external mediation. We are fully capable of defending our interests.”
Such bravado, analysts warn, may be masking deeper uncertainties.
The international community, for its part, is watching developments with growing alarm.
The United States has issued a cautious statement urging "maximum restraint" but has privately advised both sides that nuclear escalation would trigger global sanctions and pariah status.
China, Pakistan’s traditional ally, has called for de-escalation but has not discouraged Pakistan’s defensive preparations. In fact, intelligence suggests that Beijing has expedited shipments of key military hardware to Islamabad in recent days.
Russia, historically close to India, finds itself in a delicate balancing act, unwilling to alienate Pakistan completely as it seeks greater influence in Muslim-majority countries amid its growing confrontation with the West.
Meanwhile, several European governments are quietly preparing contingency plans for the evacuation of their citizens from the region should the conflict ignite.
For Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the unfolding situation represents a personal and political crisis of unprecedented proportions.
Having built his political brand on muscular nationalism and a promise of decisive leadership, Modi now faces the twin humiliation of inaction and growing domestic criticism.
The BJP’s once-iron grip on public opinion is showing cracks, with opposition leaders lambasting the government’s “reckless rhetoric and abject failure to act.”
Social media, once a loyal echo chamber for Modi’s messaging, is increasingly populated by memes portraying the Prime Minister as indecisive and cornered.
“This is Modi’s biggest challenge,” said political commentator Arundhati Roy. “The illusion of invincibility has shattered. India’s strongman suddenly looks very, very weak.”
As the world watches with bated breath, the question now is whether cooler heads will prevail — or whether two nuclear-armed rivals, locked in a spiral of provocation and mistrust, will stumble into catastrophe.
Pakistan, for its part, insists that it has "nothing to lose" and is prepared to go "head-to-head, neck-to-neck" with India. Indian strategists, meanwhile, are confronting the uncomfortable reality that there may be no painless options left.
Should war break out, the consequences would be global. Commodity markets would plunge. Refugee flows would destabilise fragile states. Nuclear fallout — literal or metaphorical — would alter the trajectory of the 21st century.
The choice, increasingly, appears to lie not in grand strategic visions, but in the unpredictable, combustible emotions of leaders facing political mortality.
If a single miscalculation occurs — a pilot strays too far, a missile malfunctions, a politician misreads a bluff — the resulting conflagration could make history books weep for centuries to come.
(Photo -Pakitan's Defence Minister )
-By LeN Defence and Foreign Affairs Correspondent
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by (2025-04-27 18:13:28)
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