-By Defence Correspondent
(Lanka-e-News -20.March.2025, 10.35 PM) Sri Lanka finds itself at the heart of a growing strategic tug-of-war between global powers. The Indo-Pacific Alliance, led by the United States, is making a determined push to draw the island nation closer to its fold. The latest move in this geopolitical chess game is the visit of U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo to Colombo. His presence in Sri Lanka is not merely ceremonial—he is here with a mission.
Spending four days in Colombo, Admiral Paparo is not sightseeing at the Lotus Tower or enjoying the coastal beauty. Instead, he is engaging with Sri Lanka’s defense and strategic planners, pressing them to align with the Indo-Pacific Alliance. His message is clear: “Join us, and we will provide security, advanced defense technology, and economic opportunities.” The promise of second-hand submarines, sophisticated radar systems, and a range of naval assets is part of the enticing offer.
From Washington’s perspective, Sri Lanka is a crucial maritime asset in the Indian Ocean. The Indo-Pacific Alliance is keen to expand its influence in the region to counter China’s growing presence. But Sri Lanka is not an easy catch. The country has long maintained a policy of neutrality, allowing all major players to engage economically but resisting any foreign military presence on its soil.
On the other side of the spectrum is China, which has already established a significant economic footprint in Sri Lanka through infrastructure investments. Beijing’s influence is visible in projects such as the Hambantota Port and the Colombo Port City. These investments have strengthened China’s economic ties with Sri Lanka, even as they raise concerns about debt dependency and strategic leverage.
Sri Lanka’s relationship with China has been tested in recent years. Under pressure from India and the U.S., the former Sri Lankan government placed restrictions on Chinese research vessels docking in Sri Lankan waters. However, the newly formed National People’s Power (NPP) government has reversed this stance, reinforcing Sri Lanka’s commitment to an open-sea policy. This approach aligns with the nation’s long-standing principle of engaging with all powers without favoring any single bloc.
As Sri Lanka grapples with economic challenges, an alternative strategy is emerging—the Djibouti model. The African nation of Djibouti has capitalized on its strategic location by hosting multiple foreign military bases for an annual fee. The U.S., China, France, Japan, and other nations pay billions of dollars to maintain bases there.
Could Sri Lanka adopt a similar approach? By leasing naval bases to global powers at an annual fee of $1.5 billion per base, Sri Lanka could generate a staggering $15 billion per year if ten bases were established. This revenue could be a game-changer for a nation still recovering from its 2021 economic collapse.
The benefits of such a model are clear:
A steady stream of foreign income without adding to national debt.
Economic stimulation through logistics, supply chains, and job creation.
Strengthening Sri Lanka’s role as a critical player in global naval strategy.
However, there are also risks:
Hosting multiple foreign bases could make Sri Lanka a battleground for competing powers.
Potential threats to national sovereignty and public resistance to foreign military presence.
The challenge of maintaining a neutral stance in an increasingly polarized Indo-Pacific.
India, Sri Lanka’s closest neighbor, is carefully watching these developments. New Delhi has invested heavily in Sri Lanka, providing a $4 billion credit line to assist during the economic crisis. This has strengthened India’s leverage over Colombo, but New Delhi remains wary of both Chinese and U.S. ambitions in the region.
India has always viewed Sri Lanka’s security as an extension of its own. The prospect of U.S. or Chinese bases in Sri Lanka is a sensitive issue for New Delhi. If Sri Lanka adopts the Djibouti model, India will likely seek its own strategic foothold to prevent being sidelined.
Sri Lanka is at a crossroads. Its strategic location makes it a valuable player in the Indo-Pacific, but it must tread carefully to avoid becoming a pawn in a broader power struggle. The country has two primary options:
Align with the Indo-Pacific Alliance – This would strengthen military ties with the U.S. and its allies, enhancing Sri Lanka’s naval capabilities and access to defense technology. However, it risks alienating China and complicating relations with India.
Leverage Rivalries for Economic Gain – By maintaining neutrality and capitalizing on its strategic location, Sri Lanka could attract economic and military partnerships from multiple powers while preserving its sovereignty. This approach would require exceptional diplomatic skill to balance competing interests without triggering hostility.
Sri Lanka’s foreign policy has always been defined by strategic hedging—engaging with multiple powers while preserving independence. In the evolving Indo-Pacific landscape, this balancing act will be more crucial than ever.
If Sri Lanka successfully navigates this complex geopolitical environment, it can transform its strategic location into an economic asset. However, if it fails to maintain equilibrium, it risks becoming entangled in great-power rivalries.
The coming months will reveal whether Sri Lanka can turn its maritime advantage into a diplomatic and economic triumph—or whether it will be forced to choose sides in a contest that is only intensifying.
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by (2025-03-20 17:57:08)
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