-By Shantha Jayaratne
(Lanka-e-News -25.Sep.2024, 11.45 pm) Anura Kumara Dissanayake has become President and, as promised, dissolved the parliament within days and set a date for the general election. This election will be his "litmus test" because he needs a 2/3 majority in parliament (150 seats) to fulfill some of the promises he made during the presidential election.
Ranil Wickremesinghe received 2,299,767 votes (17.3%) in the presidential election, while Sajith Premadasa got 4,363,035 votes (32.8%) and Namal Rajapaksa secured 342,781 votes (2.6%). Additionally, the Tamil common candidate received 226,343 votes (1.7%), and Dilith Jayaweera gained 122,396 votes (0.7%).
When combining the votes received by Ranil and Sajith, they total 50.1%, which surpasses the 42.3% (5,634,915 votes) that Anura Kumara Dissanayake received. Based on this percentage, Anura would win approximately 105 seats, while the Ranil-Sajith alliance could secure around 115 seats. However, the outcome of a general election will likely be different due to regional and personal factors. The National People's Power (NPP) must be cautious from the candidate selection stage itself, considering numerous factors when picking district candidates.
A caretaker government has already been formed, with 17 secretaries appointed. However, there has been some controversy surrounding a few of these appointments. This is only a temporary situation, and changes can be made once the government is formally established. It is crucial to keep the Secretary to the Treasury for some time, as he has been involved in the IMF program since its inception. Removing the Governor of the Central Bank would also require parliamentary approval and cannot be done solely by the President.
It was announced yesterday (24th) during several press briefings that Ranil will not contest the general election. Vajira Abeywardena stated that they will no longer use the elephant symbol. During a press conference with Akila Viraj, Ruwan Wijewardene, Thalatha, Harin, and Rajitha, it was mentioned that they hope to form an alliance with Sajith as the Prime Ministerial candidate. Additionally, they are looking to bring in breakaway groups from Pohottuwa and the SLFP. Dilith Jayaweera may also join them. They might contest as a united front or work together as a single group in parliament.
If they secure a parliamentary majority, it will be difficult for President Anura to appoint his choice as Prime Minister. According to Article 43(4) of the Constitution, the President must appoint a member of parliament who commands the confidence of the majority as Prime Minister. If the opposition gains control of the government, crises could arise from the start.
President Anura’s first challenge will be to obtain parliamentary approval for his policy statement and allocate the necessary funds to implement it. This must be done according to Article 33(a) of the Constitution. If the policy is rejected, this alone will not be a reason to dissolve parliament, according to Article 70(a). However, for parliament to approve funding, the Appropriation Bill must be passed. If it is defeated on the first attempt, it can be reintroduced. If it fails a second time, the President would be compelled to dissolve parliament.
If a UNP-led alliance controls the parliamentary majority, it could lead to difficulty in appointing a Speaker under Article 64(1) of the Constitution. In this scenario, the alliance could appoint a partisan Speaker who could influence the legislature to pressure the executive. Furthermore, under Article 157, the President would need parliamentary approval to enter into any development or other agreements with foreign countries. In summary, the legislature, led by the Prime Minister, could systematically constrain the President.
The UNP and Sajith must have reached this conclusion after careful analysis. It is likely that they plan to execute a very subtle operation where Ranil stays out of the election, allowing Sajith to take on the role of Prime Minister.
The first opportunity they will have to challenge the President will be the 2025 Appropriation Bill. If they control the parliamentary majority, it will be difficult for the President to execute his agenda. If by some chance Sajith becomes Prime Minister, they will be able to allocate funds as they see fit and implement their own policies.
With a partisan Speaker in place, they could even bring impeachment motions against the President. They could also challenge the President’s appointments to high offices through the legislature. Ultimately, through political maneuvering, Ranil could once again enter parliament via the national list and potentially reclaim the position of Prime Minister or even President. While Ranil may not be able to come to parliament through public support, he is skilled at seizing power through backdoor channels.
The NPP should be mindful of these dynamics. Their district nomination lists should comprise well-regarded, educated individuals who are accepted by the public in those districts. A well-organized election communication campaign, especially at both district and national levels, is crucial. They must also instill confidence among the people of the North, East, and Tamil-speaking hill country that their fair aspirations will be met. The NPP should request a 2/3 majority in parliament from the people to implement their policies. All efforts must be made to secure their victory; otherwise, the enemy will regroup and strike again.
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by (2024-09-25 21:03:51)
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