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Forecast of General Election 2015 by recognised psephologist in Sri Lanka

(Lanka-e-News- 06.Aug.2015, 11.30PM) A recognised psephologist in the Sri Lankan political arena predicts a 115 win for the UNP, 74 for UPFA, and 15 for JVP in the the forthcoming elections.

His full report is as follows

Column 4 shows the number of members that MR’s team would have won if the Results of the 8thJanuary Election are reckoned as that of a Parliamentary General Election. 

On 17thAugust however several factors weigh against MR’s team.

•  MR is no longer in power and does not have recourse to the vast and unlimited resources he enjoyed (unleashed) at the January election.
• The UNF propaganda blitz has had some effect on discrediting MR’s team on the issue of corruption and oppression.
• The floating vote, true to its tendency, will move away from MR’s team.
• The proliferation of parties/independents will eat into some of his earlier vote base. (The effect on the UNF will be less)
• This time MR is running only in ONE District and a large percentage of the voters in the other Districts will be influenced by parochial issues and the popularity/unpopularity of the individual candidates.
•  MR’s team is still selling the War and Ethnic Issues – this did not work on January 8th – there is no reason why it should work on 17th August.
• The presence of Champika R/Atureliya etc on the UNF Ticket is bound to draw away some of the Sinhala Buddhist base away from the UPFA.
• The UPFA is a House divided against itself.
• There is a very strong likelihood of a lower UPFA voter turnout.
• Voters do not buy the story : “We will correct our mistakes”
• Nor do they buy “We will do now what we did not do in the last ten  years.
• There is no logical reason why the voters who rejected MR at his strongest point should now do an about turn and vote for him now.

Finally there always is a tendency against long incumbency – (The UNF does not have this disadvantage at the moment)
Column 5 shows the numbers UPFA is likely to win when all these factors are keyed in.  Column 6 shows the result of the last PE that the UNP won.

The resulting position will then be (+/-):

UPFA     74    
TNA      15    
JVP      15    
Misc       6       
TNA/JVP/SLMC/ACMC/Others
UNF     115     

The SLMC and the ACMC which are contesting on their own tickets in the Vanni and Batticaloa are likely to add a seat or two to the UNF alliance.

To all this must be factored in the statistically unquantifiable element that favours the winning side. For example no analysis in 1977 predicted more than 120 seats for the UNP, but they went on to win 144 seats. Similarly at the last election in the UK all polls predicted a hung Parliament with the Conservative having a slight edge – but they won by a landslide.

SEE CHART AT IMAGES


By N  Rahman
Psephologist

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by     (2015-08-06 23:29:24)

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